For most AndroidSpin.com readers, Android, the little OS that could, is more than just a Linux Kernel wrapped in chewy Java goodness. Android OS stands for choice, open source, freedom from oppression, hacking and high performance mobile computing.
With that said, I propose we look at the fastest growing group of Android users. This article is more about getting into the minds of the potential Smartphone buyer and current owner who, if you mentioned Tegra 2, Dalvik or Bootloaders (No, this isn’t an article about obscure terms of Android hackers) they would tilt their heads like a puppy then scamper off to the Apple store to buy something safe, expensive and shiny.
Like it or not, these non-techies are becoming the meat of the Android population now. Maybe not here on the blogosphere, but out there – where phone makers and carriers are listening to the crowd’s chants for something they don’t currently have.
How will their needs, or lack of knowing what their needs are, shape the Android platform?
This is the first of a series of articles that I hope will spur discussion (keep it civil) and create some space for the hard-core users to be prepared to do what we do best: help fellow mankind make good choices about technology. This first list is a hypothesis of casual observations, industry trends, marketing experience and lots of ‘Kentucky Windage’
Near Impact:
As the Android user base grows from mostly enthusiasts (to put it lightly) to mostly casual users, we might see little impact over the next 3-6 months. Manufactures might still see value in continuing the CPU/Memory/Feature wars currently being waged. Size, weight and battery life should stay secondary to sheer horsepower and user experience.
Mid Impact:
By the Christmas season, the Android landscape could very well look different. With two, three and possibly four iPhones dotting the landscape of carriers across the world there could be an easing of the fervor to ‘Better than Apple.’ Ever present concerns of profits, costs and unlocking the overwhelmingly non-Apple & non-smartphone markets could be too tempting a prize for manufactures to ignore. We may see many more Android phones that are falling toward the low-low-low-end of the spectrum with multi-day battery life and tiny form factors.
Long Term:
This time next year, both carriers and manufacturers alike could be fully engaged in making smartphones the obvious or even only choice. For some users, even an OS like Android would seem undesirable and confusing. Those users will want something brutally simple. Most of what makes Android amazing will be ‘unmarketable’ to this section of mobile customers. New revenue sources will have to emerge to replace the high use data plans, market purchases and frequent hardware updates that power users easily indulge in.
Will the marketplace survive in its current form?
If so, what will it look like and how will it attract people who want only the basics?
What types of apps will be attractive to these ‘new’ users?
What will happen to upgrade cycles of the OS and hardware?
What could happen if users keep phones longer than 2 upgrade cycles?
If Android and the other OS makers are forced to ‘dumb-down’ their smart phones will there be a Chevrolet/Buick/Cadillac naming system to evolve, despite all the devices actually running Android?
In the distance:
Android will be heavily integrated into our lives in ways I personally can’t imagine yet. When I look back I see that the technology resistant population, even when forced to adapt, have underutilized, oversimplified and generally shaped a market that pushed enthusiasts to a point of madness or bankruptcy trying to feed their need for the cutting edge.
With far too many examples of markets being driven by the need for easy and reliable as well as the “it works, why do I need a new one?” mentality, my hope with this series of articles is to start developers and the Android community in general thinking about how to adapt to the needs of many and still keeping the few fully satiated with the snarling, snorting, drop kicking Android awesomeness we have all grown to love.
Coming up in Android from the Outside: Part 2 – Potential Software Impacts
About the Author
This is an interesting question. I’ve noticed a lot of this with some non-techie friends who recently got Android devices (Droid 2s and G2s). They loved the phones the way they came, and seemed overwhelmed by the choices they could make with apps to download. Some could not understand the difference between Droids and Android, and assumed they mean the same thing, so the G2 become the Droid G2 (assuming it was the same as the Droid 2 Global), or calling the Evo 4G, the Droid Evo. When speaking to them about widgets, I’ve had to take them by the hand to show them what options are available, how some widgets work on ADW, Launcher Pro, and others but not on stock launchers that don’t allow for scrolling widgets, etc. At least one, still gchats me, to find out how to update the weather on his Fancy Widget Clock. For many of these people, Android will have to become extremely easy to use, and to a certain extent that is the primary driver behind skins like Blur, HTC Sense, Touchwiz, etc., i.e. making it simple for people to use what the phones have to offer.
I believe most of what makes Android amazing can be ‘MARKETABLE’ to non-techies.
Everything about Android and more can be shown to everyone.
Usually when a person buys an Android device, or any consumer electronic, they will depend on the people who recommended it or the salesperson who sold it to them. The problem is that one person can’t know it all, and a salesperson usually doesn’t care about developing a relationship with the customer, and most people don’t want to be a helpdesk or support person unless they are getting paid to do so.
I don’t see the current retail companies changing, a whole new retail experience has to be created.
New businesses can be created to fill in…
There are ways to show and help people find and/or configure/customize their “Perfect Android”.
Android can be real easy to use, but it has to be shown and/or configured.
Show “Really Cool Demos” of what makes Android special. I know, there are already some out there, but it has to be organized and centralized or easy to find.
We need Android retail stores or Android Internet Cafes (“AndroidCafeStation”) where people can go to learn more and also get their Android customized or modded. The need for support is only going to increase no matter how computer savvy people get.
Get people involved with “Smartphone Competition”.
Get people involved with the “Android Ecosystem” (.net)
Show people how cool the graphics are getting (“AndroidVFX”).
I’ve always said that there will be billions of apps because they will be more specialized and localized, and regionalized.
By regionalized, I mean like different school district will have the same edu app but personalized for the students in their district.
There are so many other things that the Android community and ecosystem can do. Hopefully we can make it happen before the other platforms do or we can do a better job then them.
I’m ready to help and contribute,
JoeyAndroid